Reel Urban News Exclusive
By: Casey Lucius, Ph.D. National Security Expert
If you favored the strikes against Syria, you are probably an “Idealist” who believes the United States must defend the basic values of human safety and human rights. You may believe that no one deserves to live under a brutal dictator that attacks his own citizens with dangerous chemicals. On the other hand, you may think that the US has been over involved in events in the Middle East and we should mind our own business. Some “Realists” argue that unless our own national interests are being threatened, we shouldn’t use military tools to influence another state.
I have fallen on both sides of this argument, but in this case, the decision to launch strikes has already been made, so now the question is, what happens next? Is this striking of chemical weapons facilities a one time thing, or should we be mentally (and physically) preparing for a larger conflict with Syria, and therefore with Russia and Iran?
Former Ambassador to Syria, Ryan Crocker suggests that today’s alliances look a lot like the entangling alliances of 1914 that led us to World War I. Specifically, Iran, Israel, the United States, Turkey, and Russia are the external players. Internally there is Hezbollah, the Islamic State, al-Qaida, the Free Syrian Army, and Syrian Democratic Forces. It’s very complex indeed.
The question left in my mind, and one that the Administration, the media, and the American people should be considering, is whether we are prepared for a major global conflict. We can’t launch one strike and expect anything to change, but anything more than one strike will certainly lead to a response from some of those players listed above, and it won’t be pretty.
Unfortunately, this isn’t just about Syria or small children dying in its civil war, it’s also about Russia and Iran as the dominant powers in Syria. Any further military action by the US will be action against them, and will certainly have broader, long term implications. This is the reality that the Realists and the Idealists are not talking about.
Dr. Casey Lucius is a former professor of National Security Decision Making at the Naval War College. She is the author of Scrappy Campaigning and she leads Strategic Planning workshops with Launch Learning Systems, LLC. She can be reached at casey@caseylucius.com.
